Lies, damned lies and statistics
Barry Smith
Wednesday 27 September 2006
I had an interesting discussion with one of our deputes today, Mike Mclaughlin, about the use of the STACS and Midyis data in secondary schools. As part of my next submission for SQH I have to analyse the school's 'capacity for change' and part of that is looking at both qualitative and quantitative data in relation to the school's current position. Mike has done some really excellent analysis on our 2006 standard grade results using the Midyis testing output from S1. An extrapolation of the Midyis results provided predictions for the numbers of grades 1&2 ,3&4 and 5&6 that the school could 'expect' according to Midyis. When we compared the predictions to the actual results taking into account various factors, the numbers of the 'predicted' and 'actual' grades were very close. Actual grades slightly higher than predicted for 1&2, 5&6 and slightly lower for grades 3&4.
The Midyis data throws up many questions in how we use it to inform classroom practise. Could it be used to motivate both students and teachers to achieve beyond the prediction or is the long term nature of the prediction just too much for youngsters to really engage with? Could it become a 'fait accomplis' if teachers see that youngsters in there subject are 'on track' for what they are predicted therefore not 'pushing' any further, could it be used to 'label' youngsters at too an early age or is it exactly what schools need to grasp and use across all subjects to inform subject choice?
I don't have any answers to these questions but it has made me really think about the pressures on senior management to continually consider the 'big picture' and the standards that schools are currently very widely judged by, examination results. And while there is pressure for attainment to be high in terms of examination results, because I think most parents still judge a school to be 'good' purely on attainment, does this leave enough room for the principles of Assessment is For Learning and a Curriculum for Excellence to be fully embedded and embraced?
Thinking about these things really makes me consider the huge amount I have yet to learn about the school as an organisation within its own individual context. I also need to consider the political pressures that schools are under to deliver according to an agenda that may be largely set by Government. They really are fascinating and important issues, both for now and for our future.
